Urban Safety Analysis: Key crime rates are rising in all major metros
The 2017 State of Urban Safety in South Africa Report calls for cities to ensure that city
planning and delivery is ‘crime wise’. For example, cities must include safety
considerations when conceptualising and planning integrated public transport
networks.
In terms of general urban crime and safety trends, the analysis from the report indicates
that key crime rates such as murder, attempted murder, robbery (residential and
non-residential), and carjacking have been rising in all major metros since , despite long
term downward trends since 1994.
Select Your Data
Murder Rates in South Africa
Choose a city...
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Msunduzi
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Mangaung
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Buffalo City
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Nelson Mandela Bay
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Ekurhuleni
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EThekwini
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Cape Town
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Tshwane
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Johannesburg
Selected Data
bar2 is not defined×
City
Murder
Year
Msunduzi
38
2015
Msunduzi
35
2014
Msunduzi
32
2013
Msunduzi
39
2012
Msunduzi
34
2011
Msunduzi
47
2010
Msunduzi
44
2009
Msunduzi
48
2008
Msunduzi
51
2007
Msunduzi
49
2006
Msunduzi
53
2005
Mangaung
41
2015
Mangaung
40
2014
Mangaung
38
2013
Mangaung
44
2012
Mangaung
40
2011
Mangaung
43
2010
Mangaung
41
2009
Mangaung
40
2008
Mangaung
40
2007
Mangaung
45
2006
Mangaung
39
2005
Buffalo City
48
2015
Buffalo City
45
2014
Buffalo City
53
2013
Buffalo City
48
2012
Buffalo City
54
2011
Buffalo City
56
2010
Buffalo City
62
2009
Buffalo City
70
2008
Buffalo City
75
2007
Buffalo City
65
2006
Buffalo City
63
2005
Nelson Mandela Bay
54
2015
Nelson Mandela Bay
43
2014
Nelson Mandela Bay
45
2013
Nelson Mandela Bay
43
2012
Nelson Mandela Bay
48
2011
Nelson Mandela Bay
45
2010
Nelson Mandela Bay
48
2009
Nelson Mandela Bay
55
2008
Nelson Mandela Bay
61
2007
Nelson Mandela Bay
73
2006
Nelson Mandela Bay
64
2005
Ekurhuleni
31
2015
Ekurhuleni
31
2014
Ekurhuleni
27
2013
Ekurhuleni
24
2012
Ekurhuleni
24
2011
Ekurhuleni
29
2010
Ekurhuleni
32
2009
Ekurhuleni
36
2008
Ekurhuleni
32
2007
Ekurhuleni
34
2006
Ekurhuleni
33
2005
EThekwini
42
2015
EThekwini
43
2014
EThekwini
41
2013
EThekwini
40
2012
EThekwini
39
2011
EThekwini
40
2010
EThekwini
51
2009
EThekwini
61
2008
EThekwini
59
2007
EThekwini
62
2006
EThekwini
62
2005
Cape Town
62
2015
Cape Town
63
2014
Cape Town
59
2013
Cape Town
51
2012
Cape Town
44
2011
Cape Town
44
2010
Cape Town
42
2009
Cape Town
45
2008
Cape Town
58
2007
Cape Town
58
2006
Cape Town
55
2005
Tshwane
18
2015
Tshwane
18
2014
Tshwane
17
2013
Tshwane
17
2012
Tshwane
18
2011
Tshwane
21
2010
Tshwane
25
2009
Tshwane
28
2008
Tshwane
26
2007
Tshwane
29
2006
Tshwane
28
2005
Johannesburg
30
2015
Johannesburg
29
2014
Johannesburg
27
2013
Johannesburg
26
2012
Johannesburg
25
2011
Johannesburg
26
2010
Johannesburg
28
2009
Johannesburg
34
2008
Johannesburg
35
2007
Johannesburg
36
2006
Johannesburg
34
2005
Today, the average South African is less than half as likely to be murdered than they were in
1994/1995, which is a major achievement. A few studies have examined the reasons for such a
dramatic reduction in the murder rate between 1994/95 and 2011/12, and all conclude that it
is primarily attributable to the introduction of more rigorous firearm controls with the
Firearms Control Act (No. 60 of 2000), although causation could not be established (Abrahams
et al., 2012; Matzopoulos et al., 2014). Further research in this area should be undertaken
as a matter of priority.
City Level Analysis
Over the long term, eThekwini has seen the greatest decrease in murder rates since 2005/06,
followed by Buffalo City and Msunduzi. The murder rates in the three Gauteng metros
(Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and particularly Tshwane) have remained below the national
average. In contrast, Cape Town has double the murder rate of the other cities and has seen
its murder rate rise since 2009/10, increasing by 40% between 2011/12 and 2015/16.
Deep-dive: Crime Hotspots in Metros
Criminologists refer to ‘hotspots’ policing (Weisburd, 2008) or ‘placed-based’
policing (Beck and Lee, 2002), or ‘situational problem-oriented’ policing (Braga,
2005). These terms refer to when police put geographical
areas with high concentrations of crime at the centre of their crime reduction
strategies and practices, rather than focusing exclusively on victims and
perpetrators (Tilley, 2012). In other words, police must identify places where
priority crimes are clustered and then concentrate their resources within these
clearly defined areas, rather than evenly distributing the resources over their
entire territorial jurisdiction (Braga et al., 2011). The philosophy is that such a
focused police deployment escalates the apprehension risk for potential criminals
(Chainey and Ratcliffe, 2005), and therefore reducing crime in hotspots has the
potential to reduce the overall crime rate (Nagin, 2010).
Focus: Hotspots in Hillbrow
Generally, recreational parks are considered dangerous places, where informal workers,
hawkers, waste collectors, unemployed youth and citizens, and criminal groups congregate and
where people deal in drugs and engage in public drinking and gambling. This creates a
perception of insecurity, particularly at night. Most respondents said they were afraid of
walking to work/town, going to open spaces or parks, and walking to the shops in their area,
in part because of drug-related issues, as “drug lords hang out” in the nearby park and the
fear of being mugged by the “nyaope boys under the bridge”. Over two-thirds (67%) of
respondents felt very unsafe walking at night. Double the number of respondents in Berea
than in other areas felt very unsafe during the day. The most dangerous of the five areas
were seen to be Hillbrow and Joubert Park.
Opinion - From the analysis within State of Urban Safety report it is clear to see that
cities need to focus on hotspots to reduce the murder rates in South African Cities